the candler blog

Nate Silver Goes All In

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Nate Silver on his FiveThirtyEight blog:

My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

Silver got in a bit of a dustup this week over an ill-conceived wager against MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough. Today’s post feels like a striking blow, a devastating vindication of his science.

Though he never calls out Scarborough by name, he does end on this blustery note (emphasis mine):

If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Translation: if I’m wrong my science is a hoax; if I’m right you’re an asshole.